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PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE LAND USE IN NIGERIA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF BASELINE, ECOLOGICAL PROTECTION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Abstract: Land is one of the important input resources in a highly populous and land-scarce country such as Nigeria. When different factors change (such as, geophysical, proximity, socioeconomic and climatic), there are dramatic changes in the spatial pattern of land uses. Thus, shedding light on the dynamics of land use and land cover changes has great importance for finding the changing pattern of land use in Nigeria. In the present study, we predicted the land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2030 under baseline, ecological protection priority and economic growth scenarios in Nigeria. On this basis, we applied a previously developed Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS) model to simulate the changes in land uses according to the driving mechanisms. The findings indicate that cultivated land declines and built-up area expansion is common under all three scenarios. However, the future land use demand shows differences under different scenarios. The results under the ecological protection priority scenario shows that forest area and grassland will increase more, while under economic growth scenario, built-up area will expand dramatically in the future. The present research results furnish meaningful decision-making information for planners to conserve and/or exploit land resources in Nigeria in a more sustainable manner.
Keywords: land use change; projection; ecological protection; economic development; dynamics of land system (DLS) model; Nigeria