EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA (1986–2008)

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EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA (1986–2008)

Abstract

The research work examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1986–2008, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Procedure. The research found that exchange rate depreciation, money supply and real gross domestic product are the main determinants of inflation in Nigeria, and that Naira depreciation is positive, and has significant long-run effect on inflation in Nigeria. This implies that exchange rate depreciation can bring about an increase in inflation rate in Nigeria. The work also found that inflationary rate in Nigeria has a lagged cumulative effect. The research work therefore concludes that although Naira depreciation is relevant in ensuring an improvement in the production of exportable commodities, it must not be relied upon as a potent measure for controlling inflation in Nigeria. The work therefore recommends the need for policy-makers to employ exchange rate depreciation as a measure to compliment other macro-economic policies to stabilize the volatile inflationary rate in Nigeria.

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