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THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICE FLUCTUATION AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: 1980-2015
Abstract: The effect of oil price fluctuation on selected key macroeconomic indicators is the focus of the study. The selected macroeconomic variable are: foreign reserve, foreign exchange allocation, annual budget allocation and Gross domestic products. Unit root tests show stationarity of time series data from 1980-2015. OLS regressional analysis indicates a short run positive relationship between oil price and economic growth. Johanson co-integration tests result established that a long run relationship among the variables in the model exists. The result of the parsimonious vector error correction model established that increases in the model variables will stimulate economic growth. The study recommended that government should diversify the economy as a means of absorbing oil price shocks on the economy.
Keywords: Fluctuation, Growth, Oil, Price.