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MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF HEPATITIS C VIRUS
Abstract:
This study focuses on the mathematical modelling of the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) with the aim of providing insights into the dynamics of HCV infection and its interaction with the host immune system. Hepatitis C is a global health concern, and understanding its transmission dynamics is crucial for designing effective prevention and treatment strategies. The mathematical model developed in this research incorporates key parameters such as the rate of viral replication, immune response, and the impact of antiviral therapy.
The model employs a system of differential equations to capture the dynamic interactions between susceptible individuals, those acutely and chronically infected, and individuals undergoing antiviral treatment. The study explores the effects of various factors, including transmission rates, treatment efficacy, and the strength of the host immune response, on the prevalence and persistence of HCV in the population.
Simulation results provide valuable insights into the impact of different interventions, such as antiviral therapy and vaccination campaigns, on the control and elimination of HCV. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to identify critical parameters influencing the model outcomes, guiding the prioritization of resources for more effective public health interventions.
This research contributes to the ongoing efforts in understanding and managing HCV by offering a quantitative framework for analyzing the complex dynamics of the virus within populations. The findings have implications for public health policies aimed at reducing the burden of Hepatitis C, and the mathematical model serves as a valuable tool for predicting the outcomes of various intervention strategies in different epidemiological settings.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Background of the Study
1.1.1 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV): A Global Health Challenge
1.1.2 Importance of Mathematical Modelling in Infectious Disease Research
1.2 Objectives of the Study
1.3 Scope and Significance
1.4 Research Questions
1.5 Justification of the Study
1.6 Organization of the Thesis
Chapter 2: Literature Review
2.1 Overview of Hepatitis C Virus
2.1.1 Virology and Structure of HCV
2.1.2 Epidemiology and Transmission Routes
2.2 Previous Modelling Studies on Hepatitis C
2.2.1 Key Findings and Limitations
2.2.2 Advances in Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
2.3 Immune Response to HCV Infection
2.3.1 Acute and Chronic Phases
2.3.2 Role of Antiviral Therapy
2.4 Mathematical Modelling in Infectious Disease Dynamics
2.4.1 Differential Equations in Epidemiological Modelling
2.4.2 Applications of Mathematical Models in HCV Research
Chapter 3: Theoretical Framework
3.1 Introduction to Mathematical Modelling of HCV
3.1.1 Selection of Modelling Approach
3.1.2 Model Assumptions and Justifications
3.2 Model Structure
3.2.1 Compartmental Representation of HCV Dynamics
3.2.2 Inclusion of Immune Response and Treatment Components
3.3 Parameterization of the Model
3.3.1 Estimation and Selection of Model Parameters
3.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis
3.4 Model Equations
3.4.1 Formulation of Differential Equations
3.4.2 Initial Conditions and Boundary Conditions
Chapter 4: Methodology
4.1 Data Collection and Sources
4.1.1 Epidemiological Data on HCV Incidence and Prevalence
4.1.2 Clinical Trial Data on Antiviral Treatment Efficacy
4.2 Model Calibration
4.2.1 Parameter Estimation
4.2.2 Validation Procedures
4.3 Simulation Scenarios
4.3.1 Baseline Scenario
4.3.2 Intervention Scenarios
4.4 Software and Computational Tools
4.4.1 Use of Mathematical Software for Simulation
4.4.2 Statistical Analysis Tools
Chapter 5: Conclusion
5.1 Summary of Findings
5.2 Contributions to Knowledge
5.3 Practical Implications
5.4 Concluding Remarks
References
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